T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.51%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
15.79%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
16.71%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.44) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0322 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9134 | 67.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4397 | 21.39*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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