V-Lab
T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.01%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
16.05%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
16.17%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0734 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0492 | 1.94* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9502 | 75.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5393 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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