Skip to main content
V-Lab

T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.01%

increased by 0.17%

1 Week

16.05%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

16.17%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0734
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0492
1.94*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9502
75.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5393
0.61

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days