V-Lab
T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.22%
increased by 2.56%
1 Week
22.60%
increased by 4.94%
1 Month
27.61%
increased by 9.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 519.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4799 | 230.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -207.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1130 | 5.81*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 4.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.730
Half-life:
2 days
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