V-Lab
T Rowe Price Active Core International Equity ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.36%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
15.36%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
15.36%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7659 | 5.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 19.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -37.1263 | -3.12*** |
| γ2 | 42.6796 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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