Eventide International ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
21.96%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
22.03%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
22.29%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0217 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 107.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0825 | -2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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