Eventide International ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.52%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
24.53%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
24.57%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0616 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0010 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 32.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 3.47*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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