V-Lab
Eventide International ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.26%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
17.50%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
18.28%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0394 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0261 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9509 | 80.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 44.65*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6879 | 3.43*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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