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V-Lab

Eventide International ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.26%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

17.50%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

18.28%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Eventide International ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. The volatility power δ = 0.69 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0394
5.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0261
3.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9509
80.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
44.65***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6879
3.43***

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days