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V-Lab

Eventide International ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

10.17%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

10.17%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

10.17%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Eventide International ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
0.00
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4097
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0001
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days