Leverage Shares 2x Long IREN Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
245.40%
increased by 4.44%
1 Week
221.89%
decreased by 19.07%
1 Month
193.59%
decreased by 47.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 35% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1778 | 9.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6416 | 17.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2314 | 5.06*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6332 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.784
Half-life:
3 days
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