State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
30.02%
increased by 1.05%
1 Week
29.45%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
27.74%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 34% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0706 | 12.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1823 | 52.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 204.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1191 | 19.59*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2336 | 16.64*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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