V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.13%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
31.79%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
33.66%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6783 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0772 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8725 | 34.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0143 | -0.12 |
| γ2 | -0.1219 | -0.81 |
| γ3 | 0.4560 | 5.47*** |
| γ4 | -0.7008 | -3.64*** |
| γ5 | 0.7032 | 2.62*** |
| γ6 | -0.5507 | -2.71*** |
| γ7 | 0.2991 | 2.43** |
| γ8 | -0.0623 | -0.74 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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