V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.71%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
33.22%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
34.81%
increased by 1.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 307% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0210 | 2.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9121 | 121.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0644 | 11.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.2486 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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