Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.78%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
25.79%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
25.82%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0413 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 27.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0552 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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