Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
36.52%
decreased by 3.50%
1 Week
36.12%
decreased by 3.90%
1 Month
34.95%
decreased by 5.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.51) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1807 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1608 | 12.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7856 | 54.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5087 | 7.70*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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