Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.02%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
41.35%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
44.43%
increased by 3.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9552 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7950 | 16.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.8442 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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