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V-Lab

Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

37.56%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

37.72%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

38.38%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0328
6.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9739
354.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0302
-3.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1836
0.58
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1718
0.71
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8282
3.05***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days