V-Lab
Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
38.08%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
38.88%
increased by 0.55%
1 Month
40.10%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6447 | 6.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0712 | 1.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1362 | 0.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1537 | 0.21 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8463 | 1.19 |
Persistence:
0.680
Half-life:
2 days
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