V-Lab
Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
32.96%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
32.83%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
32.47%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8321 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1301 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8143 | 19.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1397 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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