Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
37.96%
decreased by 3.84%
1 Week
37.45%
decreased by 4.35%
1 Month
35.97%
decreased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 15, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 224% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1140 | 8.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1216 | 8.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8500 | 60.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4591 | 5.54*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1859 | 9.75*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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