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V-Lab

Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

37.96%

decreased by 3.84%

1 Week

37.45%

decreased by 4.35%

1 Month

35.97%

decreased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Global X Artfcl ITL & TCH IN APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 15, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 224% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.19 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1140
8.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1216
8.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8500
60.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4591
5.54***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1859
9.75***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days