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V-Lab

Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

61.41%

increased by 3.03%

1 Week

69.85%

increased by 11.47%

1 Month

72.74%

increased by 14.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 4.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.8118
15.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1815
9.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2160
15.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

4.1667
11.51***

Persistence:

0.397

Half-life:

1 days