Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
61.41%
increased by 3.03%
1 Week
69.85%
increased by 11.47%
1 Month
72.74%
increased by 14.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 4.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.8118 | 15.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1815 | 9.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2160 | 15.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 4.1667 | 11.51*** |
Persistence:
0.397
Half-life:
1 days
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