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V-Lab

Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

87.45%

increased by 26.27%

1 Week

69.62%

increased by 8.44%

1 Month

62.66%

increased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4657
6.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1600
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1802
0.50
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ12.3856
3.16***

Persistence:

0.340

Half-life:

1 days