Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
65.89%
increased by 6.43%
1 Week
67.20%
increased by 7.74%
1 Month
68.93%
increased by 9.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.76 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6279 | 3.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1029 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7279 | 20.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 68.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7640 | 5.05*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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