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V-Lab

Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

116.17%

increased by 41.97%

1 Week

199.16%

increased by 124.96%

1 Month

2,739.56%

increased by 2,665.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Defiance BMNR Option Income ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 25, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 125% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4002
698.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.04
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
251.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7367
225.77***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9030
92.17***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.08

Persistence:

0.650

Half-life:

2 days