Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
13.01%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
13.09%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
13.31%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.22) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0433 | 6.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0198 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9207 | 48.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2243 | -8.95*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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