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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

13.01%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

13.09%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

13.31%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.22) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0433
6.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
2.21**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9207
48.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2243
-8.95***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days