V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
11.20%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
11.53%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
12.16%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0742 | 6.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 3.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 24.84*** |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
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