V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
9.48%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
10.00%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
10.24%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2103 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3493 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.502
Half-life:
1 days
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