Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
11.67%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
11.82%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
12.30%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0359 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 2.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9424 | 39.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -134.57*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.12** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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