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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.67%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

11.82%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

12.30%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0359
4.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0326
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9424
39.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-134.57***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
2.12**

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days