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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

8.80%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

9.11%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

10.26%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7146 trading days (~28.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0110
0.98
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1556
3.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9221
42.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1556
-3.51***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7146 days