V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
8.80%
1 Week
9.11%
1 Month
10.26%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 7146 trading days (~28.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0110 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1556 | 3.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9221 | 42.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1556 | -3.51*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7146 days
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