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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

1.77%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

1.74%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

1.47%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.01
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0813
3.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0084
0.08
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0031
0.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0429
0.08
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.086

Half-life:

0 days