V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.58%
decreased by 2.21%
1 Week
14.15%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Month
13.25%
decreased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0718 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4151 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6632 | 15.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3926 | -4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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