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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.58%

decreased by 2.21%

1 Week

14.15%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Month

13.25%

decreased by 3.54%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0718
5.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4151
4.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6632
15.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3926
-4.14***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days