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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

8.44%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

8.89%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

10.10%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6022
2.30**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0977
4.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9481
41.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2922
1.90*

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days