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V-Lab

Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

10.47%

increased by 0.82%

1 Week

11.28%

increased by 1.63%

1 Month

12.30%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6529
3.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1140
2.36**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8033
8.75***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3229
0.92

Persistence:

0.803

Half-life:

3 days