V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
8.44%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
8.89%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
10.10%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6022 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 4.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9481 | 41.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2922 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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