V-Lab
Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
5.41%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
5.59%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
6.23%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5233 | 5.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 19.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 248.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1649 | 9.96*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
Other Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs