Hedgeye Fourth Turning ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.67%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
1.67%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
1.69%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 156 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8393 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 1.84* |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -13.1509 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -48.4128 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | 166.2076 | 2.24** |
| γ4 | -350.5194 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
156 days
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