Simplify US Equity PLUS Managed Futures Strategy ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
20.32%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
21.99%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 9, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0834 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2048 | 4.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 59.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1951 | -2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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