V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
12.50%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
12.88%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
14.17%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7732 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1149 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8722 | 72.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -1.06 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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