V-Lab
iShares US Real Estate ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.77%
increased by 0.57%
1 Week
13.13%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
14.36%
increased by 2.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 53 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7756 | 6.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1148 | 9.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8723 | 72.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -1.02 |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7756 | 6.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1148 | 9.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8723 | 72.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -1.02 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
Other iShares US Real Estate ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs