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V-Lab

First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

11.87%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

12.04%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

12.53%

increased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8241
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0391
2.43**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9130
29.94***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0883
-1.25
γ20.1470
1.51
γ3-0.1267
-2.31**
γ40.1080
3.33***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days