First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
11.87%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
12.04%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
12.53%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8241 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0391 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9130 | 29.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0883 | -1.25 |
| γ2 | 0.1470 | 1.51 |
| γ3 | -0.1267 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.1080 | 3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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