First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
14.74%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
14.64%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
14.32%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8348 | 3.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0392 | 2.46** |
| βGARCH | 0.9130 | 30.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0820 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.1354 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1166 | -2.28** |
| γ4 | 0.1011 | 3.38*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8348 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9130 | 30.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0820 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.1354 | 1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.1166 | -2.28** |
| γ4 | 0.1011 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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