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V-Lab

First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.79%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

11.95%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

12.40%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8299
3.23***
αARCH0.0390
2.45**
βGARCH0.9134
30.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0858
-1.24
γ20.1428
1.50
γ3-0.1248
-2.36**
γ40.1079
3.47***

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8299
3.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0390
2.45**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9134
30.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0858
-1.24
γ20.1428
1.50
γ3-0.1248
-2.36**
γ40.1079
3.47***

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days