V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.79%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
11.95%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
12.40%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8299 | 3.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0390 | 2.45** |
| βGARCH | 0.9134 | 30.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0858 | -1.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1428 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.1248 | -2.36** |
| γ4 | 0.1079 | 3.47*** |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8299 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9134 | 30.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0858 | -1.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1428 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.1248 | -2.36** |
| γ4 | 0.1079 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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