V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.63%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
12.74%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.05%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8253 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0389 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9133 | 30.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0871 | -1.25 |
| γ2 | 0.1447 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.1245 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.1061 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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