V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.66%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
15.96%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
16.96%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. The volatility power δ = 1.63 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0408 | 14.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0228 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9431 | 233.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.01 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6296 | 30.63*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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