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V-Lab

First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

14.87%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

15.28%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

16.06%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9021
105.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0859
15.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5047
0.05
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3494
0.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3246
0.02

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days