First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.01%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
15.45%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
16.65%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9021 | 104.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0856 | 15.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5062 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3475 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3262 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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