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First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

16.37%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

16.45%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

16.80%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow101
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9045
38.08***
γleverage0.0849
4.28***
λ₁tau intercept0.5021
0.43
λ₂forecast adj.0.3607
0.47
λ₃tau persistence0.3126
0.21

0.947

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9045
38.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0849
4.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5021
0.43
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3607
0.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3126
0.21

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days