V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.84%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
15.30%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
16.64%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.24) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0420 | 16.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9166 | 215.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.2445 | 18.91*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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