Skip to main content
V-Lab

First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

14.84%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

15.30%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

16.64%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.24) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0420
16.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9166
215.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.2445
18.91***

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

16 days