V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.82%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
11.67%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
11.11%
decreased by 1.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 2.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.0712 | 39.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9873 | 912.45*** |
| νDF | 2.8262 | 27.03*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0712 | 39.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 912.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8262 | 27.03*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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