V-Lab
First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.78%
decreased by 2.31%
1 Week
12.15%
decreased by 2.94%
1 Month
10.10%
decreased by 4.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Aug 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1053 | 412.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9494 | 1,751.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4637 | 267.13*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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