First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
21.04%
1 Week
21.20%
1 Month
21.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2012 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.5880 | 1.91* |
| αscore | 0.0795 | 9.37*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9973 | 724.24*** |
| νDF | 7.1006 | 1.73* |
0.997
Persistence254d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.5880 | 1.91* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0795 | 9.37*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9973 | 724.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1006 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
254 days
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