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First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

21.04%

decreased by 0.78%

1 Week

21.20%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

21.79%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Trust India Nifty 50 Equ GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2012 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~254 daysv = 7.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.5880
1.91*
αscore0.0795
9.37***
βpersistence0.9973
724.24***
νDF7.1006
1.73*

0.997

Persistence

254d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.5880
1.91*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0795
9.37***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9973
724.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1006
1.73*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

254 days