V-Lab
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.92%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
11.33%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
12.81%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 24.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 25.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9114 | 340.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5215 | 13.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2666 | 37.49*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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