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V-Lab

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.92%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

11.33%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

12.81%

increased by 1.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 5, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 333% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0231
24.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
25.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9114
340.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5215
13.12***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2666
37.49***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days