iShares China Large-Cap ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
22.18%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
22.45%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
23.40%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 126% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0546 | 16.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 20.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9077 | 280.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1878 | 10.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1452 | 30.69*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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