iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.87%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
16.16%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
17.16%
increased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 5, 1996 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 39 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4315 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 8.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8849 | 86.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0024 | 1.89* |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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