V-Lab
iShares Core US REIT ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.11%
increased by 2.70%
1 Week
19.30%
increased by 2.89%
1 Month
19.89%
increased by 3.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6473 | 7.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0984 | 5.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8681 | 38.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0079 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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