V-Lab
iShares Core US REIT ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.28%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
16.27%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
17.66%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8111 | 79.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1358 | 18.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1404 | 1.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3294 | 1.33 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5736 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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