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V-Lab

iShares Core US REIT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

17.15%

increased by 2.90%

1 Week

17.24%

increased by 2.99%

1 Month

17.57%

increased by 3.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of iShares Core US REIT ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4607
7.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0915
16.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9770
326.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5840
2.85***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days