V-Lab
iShares Core US REIT ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.15%
increased by 2.90%
1 Week
17.24%
increased by 2.99%
1 Month
17.57%
increased by 3.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4607 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 16.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9770 | 326.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5840 | 2.85*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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