Leverage Shares 2X Long DUOL Daily ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
117.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
117.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
117.45%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1717 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9495 | 6.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.8135 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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