Leverage Shares 2X Long DUOL Daily ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
125.13%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
125.13%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
125.13%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. The volatility power δ = 1.31 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9334 | 24.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2039 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3123 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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