V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long DUOL Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
41.09%
increased by 6.65%
1 Week
38.26%
increased by 3.82%
1 Month
35.75%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 124.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0325 | 213.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -125.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0381 | 88.59*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6545 | 640.41*** |
Persistence:
0.282
Half-life:
1 days
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