Leverage Shares 2X Long DUOL Daily ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
119.75%
1 Week
104.34%
1 Month
95.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 20% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3820 | 12.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2710 | 6.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1788 | -7.39*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.584
Half-life:
1 days
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