V-Lab
Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
33.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
33.70%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2226 | 5.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6963 | 2.24** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 549.3486 | 4.19*** |
| γ2 | -991.3505 | -3.61*** |
| γ3 | 752.1652 | 2.94*** |
| γ4 | -516.4713 | -2.60*** |
| γ5 | 323.5325 | 1.84* |
| γ6 | -141.4208 | -1.31 |
Persistence:
0.696
Half-life:
2 days
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