V-Lab
Roundhill UNH WeeklyPay ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.13%
1 Week
37.85%
1 Month
46.55%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 374% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1060 | 2.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1186 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 81.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9147 | -23.92*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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